Monday, February 20, 2012

Drinking from the firehose

Reading this blog may be bad for your financial health. It also might be bad for your perception of the world.
Over the past couple of months I have made a host of poor investment decisions, namely going short an upward trending market. Not only that but I have broken the cardinal rule of investments refusing to cut my losses (in fact I am even looking to double down on my short positions). Maybe its my somewhat pessimistic outlook on life, but I just cant bring myself to close those damn short positions-I am short SPY and XLF. So if your looking for astute investment advice or strict trading rules you are on the wrong blog. But, what I am offering on this blog is to distill the torrent of information out there, and hopefully give some outside the box thinking and interpretations. In effect I am offering to drink from the firehose so my readers do not have to.
Since graduating GW with a BA in economics, I have been an avid student of equity markets, macroeconomics and the global geopolitical environment. In fact it was only after I graduated GW that I really learned anything about economics at all. I learned that my suspicions regarding my economics studies at GW were by and large correct, and that most if not almost all of what I had learned in school was wrong. I learned economists almost always fail to do a full equilibrium analysis, and that most importantly 99% of economists are absolutely atrocious at predicting future events.
Let me be clear there are certainly some merits to having a formal education in economics, BUT NOT if you want to be a successful investor. To emphasise this point, let me end this inaugaral post with the testimony of Mr. Benjamin Bernanke, former Princeton economics professor and current chairman of the Federal Reserve, in March of 2007:

"the impact on the broader economy and financial markets of the problems in the subprime markets seems likely to be contained."

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